I started my career in the software industry but began working in 1980 in what has been successively titled the Centre/Department of Population Studies/Health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). My first degree is in social anthropology and I like to think of myself as a social scientist, although most of my work has been in quantitative demography. I did an MSc in Demography at LSE and completed a PhD at LSHTM on the estimation of adult mortality from data on orphanhood.

Since October 2021 I have been Emeritus Professor of Demography at LSHTM and I am also an Honorary Professor of the University of Cape Town based in the Centre for Actuarial Research.

Research Interests

Until about 15 years ago the most important focus of my research was adult health and mortality. I have written several papers on methods for measuring adult mortality in the developing world. My PhD thesis was on using orphanhood data for this. Subsequently, my work in this area focused mainly on how to use survey data to measure adult mortality in populations with high AIDS mortality. I contributed a number of chapters to the IUSSP/UNFPA manual on demographic estimation. As well as working on methods, I have produced several substantive papers on adult mortality and AIDS mortality in Africa and became involved for a while in work on the burden of disease.

I have contributed to the work of the UNAIDS/WHO Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections, in particular developing the methods used by UNAIDS to estimate and project numbers of AIDS orphans.

One theme of my research since the turn of the century has been the investigation of the interplay of demographic and poverty dynamics in South Africa. Along with Julian May and others, I was responsible for the 2004 wave of the KwaZulu-Natal Income Dynamics Study. The ADaPT project used these and other longitudinal data to investigate the social and economic impact of AIDS epidemic in South Africa. I have also published papers on inequalities in children’s health and educational outcomes in the country and on the relationship between girl’s schooling and teenage childbearing.

I also have a long-standing research interest in the transition to low fertility in Africa. In particular, in a series of papers Tom Moultrie and I have documented that this differs from most Eurasian declines in being characterized by the postponement or curtailment of further childbearing by women of all ages and parities, rather than by parity-specific family size limitation. Recently, I have been having another look at the Own-Children Method for estimating age-specific fertility and differential fertility from Census data, most notably at methods for combining it with women’s answers to summary questions about their children ever-born in order to estimate full birth histories.

My past research into population issues in Britain concentrated on investigating the changing size and characteristics of populations of particular importance for health and social policy, such as older people and children in local authority care. More recently, I published a paper on ethnic differentials in mortality in England and Wales.

Curriculum Vitæ

Full name: Ian Manfred TIMÆUS.
Emeritus Professor of Demography, Population Studies Group,
Faculty of Epidemiology & Population Health,
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, University of London
Nationality: British
Languages: Native English, working knowledge of French

University Education and Degrees

1975-8: Pembroke College, University of Cambridge
– 1978: BA(Hons) in Social Anthropology
– 1982: MA
1978-9: London School of Economics & Political Science, University of London
– 1979: MSc, with distinction, in Demography
1987-9: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, University of London. (part-time)
– 1990: PhD, Title: Advances in the Measurement of Adult Mortality from Data on Orphanhood

Employment History

2005: Confered title of Professor of Demography, LSHTM
2000: Confered title of Reader in Demography, LSHTM
1992: Promoted to Senior Lecturer in Demography, LSHTM
1985: Promoted to Lecturer in Demography, LSHTM
1980: Appointed Research Fellow, Centre for Population Studies, LSHTM
1979-80: Programmer, TRIAD Computing Systems Ltd, London


1989: Population Council Fellow in the Social Sciences based at the Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania

Honorary Appointments

2014 on: Honorary Professor, Centre for Actuarial Research, University of Cape Town, South Africa
2004-12: Visiting Scientist, Population Studies Group, Wellcome Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, South Africa
2009: External Adviser, Strategic Awards Committee, The Wellcome Trust
2004-7: Member, Scientific Advisory Board, South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis
2004-5: Demography Subject Area Panel, Economic and Social Research Council Postgraduate Training Guidelines and Recognition Exercise 2005
2002-2020: Honorary Treasurer, Population Investigation Committee
2002-8: Editorial Board, Southern African Journal of Demography
2000-4: Member, Scientific Committee on Emerging Health Threats, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population
1999-2010: Member, UNAIDS/WHO Reference Group on HIV/AIDS Estimates, Modelling and Projections
1999-2015: Editorial Board, Demographic Research
1998-2001: Visiting Scientist, Burden of Disease Unit, South African Medical Research Council
1995-2011: Joint Editor, Population Studies
1992 on: Editorial Board, Journal of Biosocial Science
1991 on: Member, Centre of African Studies, University of London
1989-93: Member, Scientific Committee on Adult Mortality, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population

Projects and Consultancies

2012-13: Principal Investigator, Poverty and Inequalities in Child Welfare Outcomes in South Africa: Analysis of Panel Data (funded by the Economic and Social Research Council)
2011-13: Co-Principal Investigator, Population Analysis for Policy & Programmes (funded by UNFPA via the IUSSP)
2010-12: Co-Principal Investigator, Tools for Demographic Estimation (funded by UNFPA via the IUSSP)
2010-11: Co-Principal Investigator, The determinants of child welfare outcomes in South Africa – a comparative analysis of cross-sectional and panel data (funded by the European Commission, via the Government of South Africa’s Programme to Support Pro-Poor Development)
2009-10: Consultant, conducting an external review of the INDEPTH Network of health and demographic surveillance sites for Sida GLOBFORSK and other funders
2006-10: Principal investigator, ADaPT – AIDS, Demographic and Poverty Trends in an African Population with High AIDS Mortality (funded by the Economic and Social Research Council)
2005-9: Co-investigator, ALPHA-network: Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (funded by the Wellcome Trust)
2007: Consultant, UNAIDS. Methods for estimating double orphans among maternal and paternal orphans for the Reports on the Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic
2004: Consultant, UNAIDS. Evaluation of biases in survey data on orphans and selection of mortality schedules for projecting orphans in Africa
2003-4: Co-Principal investigator, KwaZulu-Natal Income Dynamics Study, Round 3 (funded by the UK Department for International Development)
2002: Consultant, UNAIDS. Developed methods for estimating maternal, paternal and double AIDS and other orphans for African countries
2001-3: Co-investigator, Rapid AIDS Mortality Surveillance in South Africa (funded by Bristol Myers Squibb ‘Secure the Future’)
2001-3: Co-investigator, AIDS in Namibian Society (funded by the Academy of Finland)
2000-5: Principal Investigator, the Changing Impact of HIV/AIDS on Households in a Rural District of South Africa (Wellcome Trust post-doctoral fellowship for Dr. Vicky Hosegood)
1999: Consultant to the World Health Organization Epidemiology and Burden of Disease Department advising on life tables for the years 1999 & 2000 in countries in the African region
1998-2003: Co-investigator, Collaborative research and training in Africa and the Middle East (funded by the Mellon Foundation)
1996-8: Manager, DFID-funded project for technical assistance to the Central Department of Population Studies, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal
1994-5: Consultant to the Ministry of Economic Planning and Development, Mauritius, advising on the national burden of disease study
1994: Consultant to the United Nations’ Population Division, producing a report on sex differentials in the use of health care services by children
1992: Consultant to the World Bank, estimating age patterns of mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa as background work for the World Development Report, 1993
1992-4: Co-Investigator, collaborating on the proposal and participating in an DFID (then ODA) funded research project into ‘Environment and health in developing countries: an analysis of intra-urban differentials’
1990: Collaborated in the design, training and initial fieldwork for a retrospective childhood mortality survey conducted by MRC, The Gambia to measure the impact on mortality of insecticide-impregnated bed nets
1988-9: Consultant to the World Bank, preparing a review of methods for measuring adult mortality and a proposal for a research project on adult mortality
1987: Consultant to the World Bank, preparing a report for a World Bank/WHO meeting on the objectives and design of a possible programme of ‘Country Health Studies’
1986-90: Collaborated in proposal development and the subsequent research for the ESRC into disadvantage in childhood and the socio-economic risk factors leading to children coming into the care of local authorities in England and Wales
1986: Consultant with PRC Computer Systems International on a pilot project, focusing on population, labour force and education statistics, to improve information management systems in the Ministry of Planning, Saudi Arabia
1985-6: Consultant with Dar Al-Handasah Consultants on the Çukurova Metropolitan Region Urban Development Project in Turkey. Responsible for the baseline surveys of low-income areas. Prepared a report on housing, sanitation and child mortality in the region and a proposal for the evaluation of the public health impact of the project
1983-4: Consultant to the World Fertility Survey, preparing an assessment of the fertility and mortality estimates obtained from WFS household surveys
1983: Consultant to the World Fertility Survey, undertaking the evaluation of the Lesotho Fertility Survey 1977
1982-4: Demographic Advisor for DFID to the POPTRAN computer-assisted population education project at University College, Cardiff

Research students

Anne Rerimoi Development and Assessment of Systems for Population-Based Estimation of Neonatal and Perinatal Mortality in The Gambia. PhD, 2019
Catriona Towriss Birth Intervals and Reproductive Intentions in Eastern Africa: Insights from urban fertility transitions. PhD, 2014
Abdhalah Ziraba Adult Mortality and its Impact on Children in Two Informal Settlements in Nairobi, Kenya. PhD, 2013
Alessandra Garbero Estimation of the Impact of HIV-Related Mortality on Household Welfare from Panel Data in Kwazulu-Natal South Africa. PhD, 2011
Lucia Knight Social Networks and State Grants: Sustaining the Livelihoods of Households Affected by HIV and AIDS in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. PhD, 2011
Tania Boler Facing the Consequences of AIDS: Orphans, Educational Outcomes and Cash Grants in South Africa. PhD, 2007
Momodou Jasseh Age Patterns of Mortality within Childhood in Sub-Saharan Africa. PhD, 2003
Tom Moultrie Apartheid’s Children: Social Institutions and Birth Intervals during the South African Fertility Decline, 1960-1998. PhD, 2002
Nurul Alam Women, Households and Communities and the Care of Sick Children in Rural Bangladesh. PhD, 2000
Howard Taylor (jointly with Nigel Crook, SOAS) Child Labour and School Attendance in Urban India. PhD, 1998
William Muhwava Fertility Decline and the Determinants of Reproductive Change in Zimbabwe. PhD, 1998
Nelson Onuoha Changing Patterns of Reproduction and Social Organization in West Africa. Posthumous MPhil, 1994
Yaser Al-Naser Inequalities in Child Survival in Bahrain: The role of marriage in a low mortality population. PhD, 1993

Teaching, Training and Academic Management

2013-16: External Examiner, MSc in Population and Development, London School of Economics
2012-15: Produced 13 half-day sessions of distance-learning materials in demography for the Population Analysis for Policies & Programmes project and for LSHTM.
1982 on: Engaged in teaching on LSH&TM’s MSc and short course programmes, recently  teaching on the following MSc course modules:
–  Population, Poverty and Environment (Module Organizer)
–  Population Dynamics and Projections (sessions on projections and generalized SPMs/variable-r methods)
–  Population Studies (sessions on mortality transition)
–  Analysing Survey and Population Data (sessions on event history analysis)
2011-12: Head, Department of Population Studies
2008-11: Chair, Board of Examiners, MSc Demography and Health
2007: Co-facilitated a curriculum development workshop for a postgraduate module in Population and Development, Birzeit University, West Bank, 20-25th August
2003-7: Head, Centre for Population Studies
2006: Directed the family demography group, 2nd and 3rd ALPHA network workshops, Somkhele, South Africa, 12-16th June & Entebbe, Uganda, 13-17th November
2000-3: Departmental Research Degrees Coordinator
2001: Directed and taught on a two-week workshop for South African researchers on the ‘Analysis of Demographic and Health Survey data’, held at the Medical Research Council, Tygerberg, South Africa
1999-2001: Faculty Research Assessment Exercise Co-ordinator
1994-7 & 1999-2000: Chair, Boards of Examiners, MSc in Medical Demography and MSc in Reproductive and Sexual Health Research, University of London
1991-5 & 1997-8: Course Organizer, MSc in Medical Demography, chairing the Course Committee, and sitting on the Faculty Taught Course Committee and LSH&TM’s Education Committee
1995: Organized and taught on a three week workshop on the ‘Demographic estimation of fertility and mortality’ for staff and associates of the Central Department of Population Studies, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal
1990-1: Member, Faculty Working Group on new MSc courses
1989-90: Member, Faculty and MSc Medical Demography Teaching Review Groups
1988: Study Director, DHS Further Analysis Workshop on the ‘Determinants of Health and Mortality in Africa’, London, 1st September-26th October
1984: Consultant on the DFID (then ODA) and Registrar General’s Office of India workshop on demographic estimation, New Delhi